All About Market Timing - The Easy Way To Get Started by Leslie Masonson

By Leslie Masonson

Shell-shocked traders have misplaced endurance with the conventional buy-and-hold method of making an investment. All approximately industry Timing fingers traders with uncomplicated, easy-to-use timing ideas that they could use to go into emerging markets, go out (or move brief) falling markets, and make constant gains in either industry environments whereas holding opposed to catastrophic losses.

Compelling arguments reveal the prevalence of simple timing over buy-and-hold, whereas step by step directions convey how simple timing might be. particular funding automobiles are instructed that healthy good into such a lot timing techniques. traders who are looking to time the marketplace utilizing their very own suggestions are supplied with info on on hand software program and sites. and people traders who're trying to find advisors to assist them are supplied with impartial ranking providers to assist them opt for the consultant that's most sensible for them.

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All About Market Timing - The Easy Way To Get Started

Shell-shocked traders have misplaced persistence with the conventional buy-and-hold method of making an investment. All approximately marketplace Timing palms traders with uncomplicated, easy-to-use timing concepts that they could use to go into emerging markets, go out (or cross brief) falling markets, and make constant gains in either industry environments whereas maintaining opposed to catastrophic losses.

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Masonson adjusted 2000 data through October 2002 to be up-to-date. Note that it took more time to recover from every bear market there has ever been than the duration of the actual bear market itself. This last bear market was the third longest in duration since the Great Depression and the worst since 1938. Investors should realize that these long bear markets will occur again in the future, so a strategy to protect principal must be in place in advance to avoid this ravaging of principal. Percent Gain After Bear Market The percentage gain after bear markets, can be substantial, as Table 1-7 illustrates.

24 MARKET-TIMING BASICS Translating these three numbers into actual dollar amounts: A $1000 investment in stocks over the 76-year period would have been worth $2,279,000, while a bond investment would have been worth $51,000, and T-bills would have been worth $17,000. Remember now, these results apply only if you held for 76 years! S. 8 percent for T-bills. Thus, the argument for buy-and-hold is that a long-term investor makes out well, while those in the market for short periods of time have a higher probability of loss.

Had you sold in early 2000 instead of staying fully invested, and put your money into a money fund earning an average of 3 percent per year over the past three years, you would have been way ahead. By being fully invested you gave up the opportunity to earn an average of 3 percent a year. So in this case you lost 50 percent of your money when you could have earned 9 percent (3 percent over three years, not including compounding), so your opportunity cost was 59 percent. Market timing is a strategy that can do that.

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